November 13, 2017

Posted by orrinj at 7:32 PM

WHERE WAS AL GORE WHEN THEY NEEDED HIM:

The Fate of Rome (Charlotte Salley, NOVEMBER 13, 2017, aMERICAN sCHOLAR)

Recent scientific evidence suggests two of the forces that caused Rome to crumble were climate change and pandemic disease. Historian Kyle Harper examines how, even after hundreds of years as the powerhouse of the Mediterranean and beyond, Rome ultimately could not withstand the debilitating effects of a "little ice age" and a population dwindling from plague.

We are reliably told by our betters that climate is invariant in the absence of man-made change.

Posted by orrinj at 7:15 PM

IMPEACHMENT--RIGHT THEN, RIGHT NOW:

Bill Clinton: A Reckoning : Feminists saved the 42nd president of the United States in the 1990s. They were on the wrong side of history; is it finally time to make things right? (CAITLIN FLANAGAN, 11/13/17, The Atlantic)

[L]et us not forget the sex crimes of which the younger, stronger Bill Clinton was very credibly accused in the 1990s. Juanita Broaddrick reported that when she was a volunteer on one of his gubernatorial campaigns, she had arranged to meet him in a hotel coffee shop. At the last minute, he had changed the location to her room in the hotel, where she says he very violently raped her. She said she fought against Clinton throughout a rape that left her bloodied. At a different Arkansas hotel, he caught sight of a minor state employee named Paula Jones, and, Jones says, he sent a couple of state troopers to invite her to his suite, where he exposed his penis to her and told her to kiss it. Kathleen Willey said that she met him in the Oval Office for personal and professional advice and that he groped her, rubbed his erect penis on her, and pushed her hand to his crotch.

It was a pattern of behavior; it included an alleged violent assault; the women involved had far more credible evidence than many of the most notorious accusations that have come to light in the past five weeks. But Clinton was not left to the swift and pitiless justice that today's accused men have experienced. Rather, he was rescued by a surprising force: machine feminism. The movement had by then ossified into a partisan operation and it was willing--eager--to let this friend of the sisterhood enjoy a little droit de seigneur.

The notorious 1998 New York Times op-ed by Gloria Steinem must surely stand as one of the most regretted public actions of her life. It slut-shamed, victim-blamed, and age-shamed; it urged compassion for and gratitude to the man the women accused. Moreover (never write an op-ed in a hurry; you'll accidentally say what you really believe), it characterized contemporary feminism as a weaponized auxiliary of the Democratic Party.

Called "Feminists and the Clinton Question," it was written in March of 1998, when Paula Jones's harassment claim was working its way through court. It was printed seven days after Kathleen Willey's blockbuster 60 Minutes interview with Ed Bradley. If all the various allegations were true, wrote Steinem, Bill Clinton was "a candidate for sex addiction therapy." To her mind, the most "credible" accusations were those of Willey, whom she noted was "old enough to be Monica Lewinsky's mother." And then she wrote the fatal sentences that invalidated the new understanding of workplace sexual harassment as a moral and legal wrong: "Even if the allegations are true, the President is not guilty of sexual harassment. He is accused of having made a gross, dumb, and reckless pass at a supporter during a low point in her life. She pushed him away, she said, and it never happened again. In other words, President Clinton took 'no' for an answer."

Steinem said the same was true of Paula Jones. These were not crimes; they were "passes." Broaddrick was left out by Steinem, who revealed herself as a combination John and Bobby Kennedy of the feminist movement: the fair-haired girl and the bareknuckle fixer. The widespread liberal response to the sex crime accusations against Bill Clinton found their natural consequence 20 years later in the behavior of Harvey Weinstein: Stay loudly and publicly and extravagantly on the side of signal leftist causes and you can do what you want in the privacy of your offices and hotel rooms. But the mood of the country has changed. We are in a time when old monuments are coming down and when men are losing their careers over things they did to women a long time ago.

Posted by orrinj at 6:51 PM

THIS FAR INTO THE WoT...:

Saudis walk back escalation in Yemen, Lebanon as dramatic moves backfire (ZEINA KARAM, 13 November 2017, AP) 

Saudi Arabia's dramatic moves to counter Iran in the region appear to have backfired, significantly ratcheting up regional tensions and setting off a spiral of reactions and anger that seem to have caught the kingdom off guard.

Now it's trying to walk back its escalations in Lebanon and Yemen.

On Monday, the kingdom announced that the Saudi-led coalition fighting Shiite rebels in Yemen would begin reopening airports and seaports in the Arab world's poorest country, days after closing them over a rebel ballistic missile attack on Riyadh.

The move came just hours after Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who shocked the nation by announcing his resignation from the Saudi capital on November 4, gave an interview in which he backed off his strident condemnation of the Lebanese militant Hezbollah, saying he would return to the country within days to seek a settlement with the Shiite militants, his rivals in his coalition government.


...he should know better than to mess with our Shi'a allies.

Posted by orrinj at 6:44 PM

TRUMP LOVE:

The Secret Correspondence Between Donald Trump Jr. and WikiLeaks (JULIA IOFFE, 11/13/17, The Atlantic)

Just before the stroke of midnight on September 20, 2016, at the height of last year's presidential election, the WikiLeaks Twitter account sent a private direct message to Donald Trump Jr., the Republican nominee's oldest son and campaign surrogate. "A PAC run anti-Trump site putintrump.org is about to launch," WikiLeaks wrote. "The PAC is a recycled pro-Iraq war PAC. We have guessed the password. It is 'putintrump.' See 'About' for who is behind it. Any comments?" (The site, which has since become a joint project with Mother Jones, was founded by Rob Glaser, a tech entrepreneur, and was funded by Progress for USA Political Action Committee.)

The next morning, about 12 hours later, Trump Jr. responded to WikiLeaks. "Off the record I don't know who that is, but I'll ask around," he wrote on September 21, 2016. "Thanks." [...]

WikiLeaks played a pivotal role in the presidential campaign. In July 2016, on the first day of the Democratic National Convention, WikiLeaks released emails stolen from the Democratic National Committee's servers that spring. The emails showed DNC officials denigrating Bernie Sanders, renewing tensions on the eve of Clinton's acceptance of the nomination. On October 7, less than an hour after the Washington Post released the Access Hollywood tape, in which Trump bragged about sexually assaulting women, Wikileaks released emails that hackers had pilfered from the personal email account of Clinton's campaign manager John Podesta.

On October 3, 2016, WikiLeaks wrote again. "Hiya, it'd be great if you guys could comment on/push this story," WikiLeaks suggested, attaching a quote from then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton about wanting to "just drone" WikiLeaks founder, Julian Assange.

"Already did that earlier today," Trump Jr. responded an hour-and-a-half later. "It's amazing what she can get away with."

Two minutes later, Trump Jr. wrote again, asking, "What's behind this Wednesday leak I keep reading about?" The day before, Roger Stone, an informal advisor to Donald Trump, had tweeted, "Wednesday@HillaryClinton is done. #WikiLeaks."

WikiLeaks didn't respond to that message, but on October 12, 2016, the account again messaged Trump Jr. "Hey Donald, great to see you and your dad talking about our publications," WikiLeaks wrote. (At a rally on October 10, Donald Trump had proclaimed, "I love WikiLeaks!")

"Strongly suggest your dad tweets this link if he mentions us," WikiLeaks went on, pointing Trump Jr. to the link wlsearch.tk, which it said would help Trump's followers dig through the trove of stolen documents and find stories. "There's many great stories the press are missing and we're sure some of your follows [sic] will find it," WikiLeaks went on. "Btw we just released Podesta Emails Part 4."

Trump Jr. did not respond to this message. But just 15 minutes after it was sent, as The Wall Street Journal's Byron Tau pointed out, Donald Trump himself tweeted, "Very little pick-up by the dishonest media of incredible information provided by WikiLeaks. So dishonest! Rigged system!"

Two days later, on October 14, 2016, Trump Jr. tweeted out the link WikiLeaks had provided him. "For those who have the time to read about all the corruption and hypocrisy all the @wikileaks emails are right here: http://wlsearch.tk/," he wrote.

Posted by orrinj at 2:37 PM

UNLIKELY?:

A London Meeting of an Unlikely Group: How a Trump Adviser Came to Learn of Clinton 'Dirt' (SHARON LaFRANIERE, DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK, ANDREW HIGGINS and MICHAEL SCHWIRTZNOV. 10, 2017, NY Times)

At midday on March 24, 2016, an improbable group gathered in a London cafe to discuss setting up a meeting between Donald J. Trump, then a candidate, and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.

There was George Papadopoulos, a 28-year-old from Chicago with an inflated résumé who just days earlier had been publicly named as a foreign policy adviser to Mr. Trump's campaign. There was Joseph Mifsud, a Maltese academic in his mid-50s with a faltering career who boasted of having high-level contacts in the Russian government.

And, perhaps most mysteriously, there was Olga Polonskaya, a 30-year-old Russian from St. Petersburg and the former manager of a wine distribution company. Mr. Mifsud introduced her to Mr. Papadopoulos as Mr. Putin's niece, according to court papers. Mr. Putin has no niece.

The interactions between the three players and a fourth man with contacts inside Russia's Foreign Ministry have become a central part of the inquiry by the special prosecutor, Robert S. Mueller III, into the Kremlin's efforts to interfere with the presidential election. Recently released court documents suggest that the F.B.I. suspected that some of the people who showed interest in Mr. Papadopoulos were participants in a Russian intelligence operation.

The March 2016 meeting was followed by a breakfast the next month at a London hotel during which Mr. Mifsud revealed to Mr. Papadopoulos that the Russians had "dirt" on Hillary Clinton in the form of "thousands of emails." That was months before the theft of a trove of emails from the Democratic National Committee by Russian-sponsored hackers became public.


Mr. Mueller's investigators are seeking to determine who -- if anyone -- in the Trump campaign Mr. Papadopoulos told about the stolen emails. Although there is no evidence that Mr. Papadopoulos emailed that information to the campaign, Mr. Papadopoulos was in regular contact that spring with top campaign officials, including Stephen Miller, now a senior adviser to President Trump, according to interviews and campaign documents reviewed by The New York Times.

The revelations about Mr. Papadopoulos's activities are part of a series of disclosures in the past two weeks about communications between Trump campaign advisers and Russian officials or self-described intermediaries for the Russian government. Taken together, they show not only that the contacts were more extensive than previously known, but also that senior campaign officials were aware of them.

There's nothing more likely than intercourse between the Alt-right and Putin proxies.




Posted by orrinj at 12:53 PM

KNOWING YOUR ALLIES:

Lawmakers allege State Dept. covering up U.S. military support to IRGC (Adam Kredo, November 13, 2017, Daily Beacon)

U.S. officials acknowledged Iranian-backed forces in Iraq could be using American-made arms, an admission that comes amid growing concern on Capitol Hill the U.S. government is quietly working with militia fighters in Iraq who are directly tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), according to multiple sources familiar with the situation.

Posted by orrinj at 7:55 AM

THE OBJECTIVELY ANTI-AMERICAN PRESIDENT:

New Pacific trade deal could leave U.S. playing catchup (Daniel Shane, 11/13/17, CNNMoney)

Brokered on the sidelines of a summit of Pacific nations in Vietnam, the initial accord is "a huge, huge step forward," said Alexander Capri, a senior fellow at National University of Singapore's Business School. [...]

Trump has expressed preference for negotiating one-on-one trade agreements with other countries, saying he can ensure a better deal for American workers.

But remaining TPP members like Japan and Vietnam, whom Trump visited on his Asia tour, will be less inclined to do one-on-one trade deals with the U.S. if the new TPP is finalized soon, according to Capri.

"The Trump team basically just wants to pound these guys into submission," he said. "No trade partner of the U.S. wants to do a bilateral with them."

Posted by orrinj at 5:06 AM

ALL COMEDY IS CONSERVATIVE:

After a Disciplined Week in Asia, Trump Unloads on Critics (Mark Landler, Nov. 12, 2017, NY Times)

It was hard to say what prompted the sudden change in the president's demeanor, though the first lady, Melania Trump, who often plays a moderating influence on her husband, dropped off the trip in Beijing, after visiting the Great Wall of China and stroking the paw of a panda bear at the Beijing Zoo.

Posted by orrinj at 4:55 AM

IT'LL NEVER FLY, ORVILLE:

SELF-DRIVING TRUCKS ARE NOW DELIVERING REFRIGERATORS (Alex Davies, 11/12/17, Wired)

Since early October, autonomous trucks built and operated by the startup Embark have been hauling Frigidaire refrigerators 650 miles along the I-10 freeway, from a warehouse in El Paso, Texas, to a distribution center in Palm Springs, California. A human driver rides in the cab to monitor the computer chauffeur for now, but the ultimate goal of this (auto) pilot program is to dump the fleshbag and let the trucks rumble solo down the highway.

"This is the first time someone has demonstrated this end-to-end," Embark CEO Alex Rodrigues says. "It showcases the way that we see self-driving playing into the logistics industry."

Posted by orrinj at 4:46 AM

MONEY FOR NOTHIN', DECLINES IN SOCIAL PATHOLOGY FOR FREE:

FREE MONEY: THE SURPRISING EFFECTS OF A BASIC INCOME SUPPLIED BY GOVERNMENT (Issie Lapowsky, 11/12/17, Wired)

Just months before Spencer was born, the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians opened a casino near McCoy's home, and promised every one of its roughly 15,000 tribal members--among them Skooter and Michelle--an equal cut of the profits. The first payouts came to $595 each--a nice little bonus, McCoy says, just for being. "That was the first time we ever took a vacation," McCoy remembers. "We went to Myrtle Beach."

Once Spencer arrived, the checks covered the family's car payments and other bills. "It was huge," McCoy says. He graduated college and went on to coach football at the local high school for 11 years. Two decades later, McCoy still sets aside some of the money the tribe gives out twice a year to take his children--three of them, now--on vacation. (He and Michelle are separated.) And as the casino revenue has grown, so have the checks. In 2016, every tribal member received roughly $12,000. McCoy's kids, and all children in the community, have been accruing payments since the day they were born. The tribe sets the money aside and invests it, so the children cash out a substantial nest egg when they're 18. When Spencer's 18th birthday came three years ago, his so-called "minor's fund" amounted to $105,000 after taxes. His 12-year-old sister is projected to receive roughly twice that.

McCoy is now general manager of the Cherokee Boys Club, a nonprofit that provides day care, foster care, and other services to the tribe. At 41, he has a shaved head and wears a gray Under Armour T-shirt over his sturdy frame, along with a rubber bracelet around his wrist that reads, "I can do all things through Christ who strengthens me."

The casino money made it possible for him to support his young family, but the money his children will receive is potentially life-altering on a different scale. "If you've lived in a small rural community and never saw anybody leave, never saw anyone with a white-collar job or leading any organization, you always kind of keep your mindset right here," he says, forming a little circle with his hands in front of his face. "Our kids today? The kids at the high school?" He throws his arms out wide. "They believe the sky's the limit. It's really changed the entire mindset of the community these past 20 years."

These biannual, unconditional cash disbursements go by different names among the members of the tribe. Officially, they're called "per capita payments." McCoy's kids call it their "big money." But a certain kind of Silicon Valley idealist might call it something else: a universal basic income. [...]

It was here, in the quiet shadow of the mountain range, that a team of researchers including Jane Costello, a professor of psychiatry and behavioral sciences at the Duke Institute for Brain Sciences, decided to ground the Great Smoky Mountains Study of Youth. Costello wanted to find out about the need for mental health and psychiatric services for children in rural America, and in 1993 the researchers began studying 1,420 children, 350 of whom were members of the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians. They divided the group into three age cohorts--9-year-olds, 11-year-olds, and 13-year-olds--and gave their parents thick, detailed personality surveys called the Child and Adolescent Psychiatric Assessment, which were completed every year until the kids turned 16 and then again every few years until they turned 30. Looking for indicators of behavioral or emotional troubles, the researchers asked questions about whether the children ever engaged in physical fights and whether they had trouble being away from home.

Costello and her team also recorded household data like parents' occupations, history of domestic violence, and, crucially, income. When the study began, about 67 percent of the American Indian kids were living below the poverty line. It wasn't until after the casino opened that Costello began to notice that household income among the Cherokee families was going up. It was subtle at first, but the trend turned sharply upward as time went on, eventually lifting 14 percent of the Cherokee children in the study above the poverty line. Household income for those families who were not Cherokee, meanwhile, grew at a slower rate.

It was an awakening for Costello, who had accidentally stumbled onto an entirely new line of inquiry on the impact of unconditional cash transfers on the poor. "I suddenly thought, 'Oh my god,'" Costello remembers. [...]

The Eastern Band's change in fortunes also shifted the course of Costello's research. "We thought it'd be interesting to see if it made any difference" to the children's mental health, she says. They also started comparing the younger Cherokee children, whose families started accruing money earlier in their lives, to the older ones. They wanted to answer a simple question: Would the cash infusion benefit these kids in measurable ways?

The answer defied Costello's initial hypothesis. "I thought, 'There's such a pit of poverty there that this isn't going to make any difference; it's trivial,'" she remembers. "But it wasn't." Now the body of research that she and other academics have built has become a favorite point of reference for universal basic income advocates, providing some of the most compelling evidence yet of the positive effects of bestowing unconditional sums of cash on the poor.

In two studies, one published in 2003 and a follow-up in 2010, Costello compared children who were lifted out of poverty after the casino opened to those who had never been poor. She scored them based on the presence of what researchers referred to as emotional disorders, like depression and anxiety, as well as behavioral disorders, including attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD).

Before the casino opened, Costello found that poor children scored twice as high as those who were not poor for symptoms of psychiatric disorders. But after the casino opened, the children whose families' income rose above the poverty rate showed a 40 percent decrease in behavioral problems. Just four years after the casino opened, they were, behaviorally at least, no different from the kids who had never been poor at all. By the time the youngest cohort of children was at least 21, she found something else: The younger the Cherokee children were when the casino opened, the better they fared compared to the older Cherokee children and to rural whites. This was true for emotional and behavioral problems as well as drug and alcohol addiction.

Other researchers have used Costello's data to look at different effects of the casino payments. One fear about basic income is that people will be content living on their subsidies and stop working. But a 2010 analysis of the data, led by Randall Akee, who researches labor economics at the University of Southern California, found no impact on overall labor participation.

Of course, the casino also brought jobs to the area, and the majority of the roughly 2,500 people the casino employs are tribal members. This would seem to confound the question of whether the tribal payment or casino income made the difference in the children's lives, but Akee looked into this too. He found that, among the parents in Costello's study, employment didn't go up or down after the opening of the casino.

Akee also looked at the effects of the money on education and found that more money in the household meant children stayed in school longer. The impact on crime was just as profound: A $4,000 increase in household income reduced the poorest kids' chances of committing a minor crime by 22 percent.

All of this amounted to substantial financial benefits for the community as a whole. "This translates to fewer kids in jail, fewer kids in in-patient care," Costello says. "Then there are the other costs you can't calculate. The cost of people not killing themselves? That's a hard one."

Posted by orrinj at 4:41 AM

NAZI, NOT FASCIST:

Was Vichy France a Puppet Government or a Willing Nazi Collaborator? : The authoritarian government led by Marshal Pétain participated in Jewish expulsions and turned France into a quasi-police state (Lorraine Boissoneault, 11/09/17, SMITHSONIAN.COM )

Did the regime collaborate with Nazis out of self-preservation, or did it have its own agenda? 

The misconception that the Vichy Regime was the lesser of two evils endured only for the first few decades after the war. Since then, as more archival material has come to light, historians have gradually come to see the collaborators as willing participants in the Holocaust. Before the Nazis ever demanded the Vichy government participate in anti-Semitic policies, the French had enacted policies that removed Jews from civil service and began seizing Jewish property. "The Vichy French government participated willingly in the deportations and did most of the arresting," Paxton says. "The arrests of foreign Jews often involved separating families from their children, sometimes in broad daylight, and it had a very powerful effect on public opinion and began to turn opinion against Pétain."

One particularly notable roundup was July 1942's Vel d'Hiv, the largest deportation of Jews from France that would occur during the war. Among the 13,000 Jews arrested and deported to Auschwitz were 4,000 children--removed with their parents for "humanitarian" reasons, according to French Prime Minister Pierre Laval. If they stayed behind, he reasoned, who would care for them? All told, the Vichy regime helped deport 75,721 Jewish refugees and French citizens to death camps, according to the BBC.

Did the French public support the Vichy leaders?

It's a complicated question, since the Vichy government was in power for four years. As Michael Curtis writes in Verdict on Vichy: Power and Prejudice in the Vichy France Regime, "The Vichy regime seemed to have early popular support, while the Resistance was at first limited. If there had been a public referendum, the French people, in a state of confusion after the military defeat, concerned with material interests, and distressed by the German occupation of the north of the country, might well have approved of Vichy. At one extreme there was great brutality, especially by the violently anti-Semitic paramilitary Milice, while on the hand the number of protestors and heroic resistors against Vichy and the Nazis grew larger throughout the war."

Paxton agrees that support waned over the course of the German occupation, but also points out the public overwhelmingly supported Pétain's regime at the start. And while the Resistance began early on in the start of the war, "resisters were always a minority," writes Robert Gildea in Fighters in the Shadows: A New History of the French Resistance.