February 8, 2016

JEB TIME:

Statistically measuring 2016 presidential candidate electability: Evidence from prediction markets (Jonathan S. Hartley,Kevin A. Hassett, February 3, 2016 | AEI Economics Working Paper Series)


We use prediction market data from Betfair, the world's largest Internet betting exchange, to measure the electability of 2016 Presidential candidates using regressions that compare the general election contest and party nomination win probabilities for each candidate. [...]Across specifications, we find that Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio are the most electable, while Chris Christie and John Kasich also have high electability scores. 

Posted by at February 8, 2016 2:21 PM

  

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