April 4, 2015

SPEND MY WHOLE DAY STEALIN' CHICKENS:

Clinton has inevitability, but Bush has the Electoral College (Eric Ham, 4/03/15, The Hill)

Based on early polling numbers, Clinton has the path of least resistance to the Democratic nomination. Yet a head-to-head battle with Bush could spell doom, as his advantage in the all-important Electoral College is unquestioned.

Bush still enjoys enormous popularity in his home state of Florida, a key battleground state. That enduring popularity, along with the infrastructure of recently reelected Republican Gov. Rick Scott, will give Bush a decided edge over Clinton. Other key battleground states that deserve attention include Virginia, Pennsylvania and Colorado. A recent Quinnipiac University poll has Clinton and Bush even in a hypothetical match-up in the Virginia. However, Virginia has gone Democratic the last two presidential election cycles and Sen. Mark Warner's (D) razor-thin victory over former Republican Party Chairman Ed Gillespie, along with Terry McAuliffe's (D) gubernatorial win, could be the Democratic firewall Clinton needs to win that crucial state. Additionally, Clinton's deep roots in the Keystone State of Pennsylvania, combined with Philadelphia being the host city of the Democratic National Convention in 2016, all but assures that Pennsylvania will remain blue.

Meanwhile, Republicans might feel the wind at their backs in the Centennial State after tremendous gains in the 2014 midterms. Republican Cory Gardner was able to unseat Democratic Sen. Mark Udall and Colorado Republicans took control of the state Senate for the first time in a decade. Amid this backdrop, 2014 saw Colorado's turnout among women at its lowest point since 1992. However, Colorado Republicans should not expect a similar turnout among women in a presidential election year with Clinton possibly at the top of the ticket.

Though Pennsylvania, Virginia and possibly Colorado lean toward Clinton in an all-important White House run, no two states are more integral to any presidential victory than Nevada and Ohio, and they stand solidly in Bush's corner.

Posted by at April 4, 2015 8:32 AM
  

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