TIM'S CLUB:

The GOP's New Hope? (Reihan Salam, 11/21/09, Daily Beast)

The hope among conservatives is that Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell, the newly elected governors of New Jersey and Virginia, are a harbinger of major Republican victories in gubernatorial races next year. Both candidates won in states that President Obama won in 2009, suggesting that at least some independent voters have soured on the expansive and expensive Democratic agenda. Next year, the RGA is paying particular attention to races in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida, all Obama states that have been hit particularly hard by rising unemployment. It's easy to see how a governor with a proven track record and a focus on bread-and-butter issues could do well. There are at least four sitting Republican governors who are considered potential presidential contenders. But only Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota is doing the hard work of gathering his forces, hiring consultants, and raising his national profile.

On paper, Tim Pawlenty's appeal is clear. As the two-term governor of Minnesota, he has a demonstrated ability to win the votes of Democrats and independents. To defeat Barack Obama, Republicans will have to break out of their demographic box, and that means winning races in the Upper Midwest and other regions that have proven inhospitable terrain for at least the last decade. As the first member of his working-class family to graduate from college, Pawlenty has a compelling personal story. Pawlenty also has a reputation as a likable and even gentle campaigner, who isn't inclined to use scorched-earth tactics against his opponents, a break with the anger to tea-party activists who've energized the conservative base but who might also turn off swing voters who like their leader even-tempered.