SLAPPIN' TICKELL:

Warming warnings get overheated: Alarmist predictions of climate change like Oliver Tickell's are not just bad science – they stop us thinking rationally about solutions (Björn Lomborg, 8/15/08, guardian.co.uk)

Much of the global warming debate is perhaps best described as a constant outbidding by frantic campaigners, producing a barrage of ever-more scary scenarios in an attempt to get the public to accept their civilisation-changing proposals. Unfortunately, the general public – while concerned about the environment – is distinctly unwilling to support questionable solutions with costs running into tens of trillions of pounds. Predictably, this makes the campaigners reach for even more outlandish scares.

These alarmist predictions are becoming quite bizarre, and could be dismissed as sociological oddities, if it weren't for the fact that they get such big play in the media. Oliver Tickell, for instance, writes that a global warming causing a 4C temperature increase by the end of the century would be a "catastrophe" and the beginning of the "extinction" of the human race. This is simply silly.

His evidence? That 4C would mean that all the ice on the planet would melt, bringing the long-term sea level rise to 70-80m, flooding everything we hold dear, seeing billions of people die. Clearly, Tickell has maxed out the campaigners' scare potential (because there is no more ice to melt, this is the scariest he could ever conjure). But he is wrong. Let us just remember that the UN climate panel, the IPCC, expects a temperature rise by the end of the century between 1.8 and 6.0C. Within this range, the IPCC predicts that, by the end of the century, sea levels will rise 18-59 centimetres – Tickell is simply exaggerating by a factor of up to 400.

It's a comfortable 67 degrees here today, perfect weather for the parent/kid soccer match, which we lost on a penalty kick. Stupid game....

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COMMENTING

Folks, it looks like the MovableType comment system in combination with our host, just can't handle it. I'm adding an integrated, yet separately hosted, commenting system: Disqus. It adds several nice features: threaded comments, ability to reply to comments via email, and the ability for you to see all your comments in one place. Please give it a try...you'll probably want to register with Disqus (can do as you comment) or you can post without registering.

I'm going to be off-line most of the weekend, so I'll check on things when I'm back. At that time, I'll also add a widget to the front page to show recent comments and try to make the blogging system work more smoothly for OJ. Feel free to comment below with reactions, suggestions, et al.

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A DIFFERENT ONE:

Left Behind Authors Speak Out on McCain Ad 'The One' (Beverly Rykerd, 8/08/08, Christian Newswire)

John McCain's campaign ad "The One" has generated a lot of buzz regarding the "Left Behind Series." Political commentators are comparing McCain's portrayal of competitor Barack Obama with the blockbuster apocalyptic series' depiction of the antichrist. But even the series authors Tim LaHaye and Jerry B. Jenkins don't think Obama is the antichrist. What may have been created as a farce has generated a firestorm of controversy on the internet.

LaHaye and Jenkins take a literal interpretation of prophecies found in the Book of Revelation. They believe the antichrist will surface on the world stage at some point, but neither see Obama in that role. "I've gotten a lot of questions the last few weeks asking if Obama is the antichrist," says novelist Jenkins. "I tell everyone that I don't think the antichrist will come out of politics, especially American politics."

"I can see by the language he uses why people think he could be the antichrist," adds LaHaye, "but from my reading of scripture, he doesn't meet the criteria."

Wannabe.

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THE VIRGIN JERRY:

Jerry Wexler, famed record producer, dies at 91 (Associated Press, August 15, 2008)

Wexler helped boost the careers of both the "King of Soul," Charles, and the "Queen of Soul," Franklin. Wilson Pickett, Solomon Burke and Percy Sledge were among the other R&B greats who benefited from Wexler's deft recording touch. He also produced Dusty Springfield's classic "Dusty in Memphis," considered a masterpiece of "blue-eyed" soul.

Among the standards produced by Wexler: Franklin's "Respect," a dazzling, feminist reworking of an Otis Redding song; Sledge's deep ballad "When A Man Loves A Woman" and Pickett's "In the Midnight Hour," with a horn vamp inspired by Wexler's admittedly rhythmless dancing.

Wexler was named to the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame in 1987.

"No one really knew how to make a record when I started," he said in a profile on the rock hall's Web site. "You simply went into the studio, turned on the mike and said, 'Play."

In the studio, Wexler was a hands-on producer. Once, during a session with Charles, the tambourine player was off the beat. Wexler, in his award-winning autobiography, recalled grabbing the instrument and playing it himself.

"Who's that?" asked Charles.

"Me," Wexler told the blind singer.

"You got it, baby!" Charles said.

The son of Polish immigrants and a music buff since his teens, Wexler landed a job writing for Billboard magazine in the late 1940s after serving in World War II and studying journalism in college. There he coined the term "rhythm and blues" for the magazine's black music charts; previously, they were listed under "race records."

While working at Billboard, Wexler befriended Ertegun -- a life-altering friendship for both. Ertegun and a partner had started Atlantic, then a small R&B label in New York. In 1953, when Ertegun's partner left for a two-year military hitch, Wexler stepped in as the label's co-director.

He never left.

MORE:
-PROFILE: The Immortals - The Greatest Artists of All Time: 63) Phil Spector (Jerry Wexler, Apr 22, 2005, Rolling Stone)
-OBIT: Jerry Wexler, R&B Impresario, Is Dead at 91 (BRUCE WEBER, 8/16/08, NY Times)

“He played a major role in bringing black music to the masses, and in the evolution of rhythm and blues to soul music,” Jim Henke, vice president and chief curator for the Hall of Fame, said in an interview. “Beyond that, he really developed the role of the record producer. Jerry did a lot more than just turn on a tape recorder. He left his stamp on a lot of great music. He had a commercial ear as well as a critical ear.”

Mr. Wexler was something of a paradox. A businessman with tireless energy, a ruthless streak and a volatile temper, he was also a hopeless music fan. A New York Jew and a vehement atheist, he found his musical home in the Deep South, in studios in Memphis and Muscle Shoals, Ala., among Baptists and Methodists, blacks and good old boys.

“He was a bundle of contradictions,” said Tom Thurman, who produced and directed a documentary about Mr. Wexler in 2000. “He was incredibly abrasive and incredibly generous, very abrupt and very, very patient, seemingly a pure, sharklike businessman and also a cerebral and creative genius.”

The title of Mr. Thurman’s documentary, “Immaculate Funk,” was Mr. Wexler’s phrase for the Atlantic sound, characterized by a heavy backbeat and a gospel influence. “It’s funky, it’s deep, it’s very emotional, but it’s clean,” Mr. Wexler once said.

Though not a musician himself, Mr. Wexler had a natural rapport with musicians, who seemed to recognize his instinct for how best to employ their gifts. In 1950, while he was still at Billboard, he encountered the young singer Patti Page and hummed for her a 1947 song he liked, “The Tennessee Waltz.” Her subsequent recording of it sold three million copies in eight months.

A few years later he was a partner at Atlantic, presiding over the 1954 recording session of Ray Charles’s breakout hit, “I’ve Got a Woman.” He said later that the best thing he had done for Charles was to let him do as he pleased.

“He had an extraordinary insight into talent,” Charles, who died in 2004, said in “Immaculate Funk.”

-PROFILE: Jerry Wexler: The great Atlantic Records producer gave us rhythm and blues -- as well as just about every R&B legend -- and retooled the very foundations of music producing. (Alex Halberstadt, Sep. 5, 2000, Salon)
-REVIEW: of RHYTHM AND THE BLUES A Life in American Music. By Jerry Wexler and David Ritz (Leo Sacks, NY Times Book Review

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RATHER THAN COMMENDATIONS, IN THIS WAR...:

US coalition: 36 militants killed in Afghanistan (AP, 8/15/08)

The U.S.-led coalition says more than 36 militants have been killed in a series of clashes in southern Afghanistan. [...]

It says that its reconnaissance patrol was attacked by groups of militants over several days. The troops clashed with militants and called in airstrikes, killing more than three dozen militants.

There were no reports of casualties among coalition and Afghan forces.

...our guys ought to win stuffed bears.

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OF WHAT ELSE DOES OBAMISM CONSIST...:

D.C. Party Is Resistant To Audacity Of Change (David Nakamura, 8/15/08, Washington Post)

Palmer and a dozen friends from the volunteer group D.C. For Obama are part of a slate bidding for seats on the D.C. Democratic State Committee. They are touting ideas and experience from the national campaign that they say can energize and grow the local party apparatus, whether it's using the Internet to organize or broadcasting meetings to boost visibility.

And they're getting their heads knocked hard against the wall of political reality.

Their idealism and enthusiasm have crashed into a formidable opposing force: the local Democratic Party, with its internecine rivalries and territorial squabbles. The District, after all, is that proverbial "small-town big city," where everyone knows everyone and insiders aggressively control tiny fiefdoms.

These insiders have called the newcomers Johnny-come-latelies who don't know the city and haven't paid their dues. The old guard is intent on keeping them at bay.

Four of the newcomers, including Palmer, have had their nominating petitions challenged at the Board of Elections and Ethics by rivals hoping to keep them off the ballot. Two others from Palmer's slate were denied seats on the city's delegation to the Democratic National Convention, after losing votes against longtime D.C. politicos. And several more newbies said they were told by longtime party leaders that they should wait their turn and drop out of the race. [...]

[77-year-old incumbent Horace] Kreitzman says he respects Palmer and the others for their work on Obama's campaign but wonders how much they understand about the District.

"They're very active and very sincere folks, but some of the people I talked with didn't even know what precinct they vote in," Kreitzman said. "All of a sudden they're active? Good, I'm glad. But some might say they should not start at the top."
...besides the belief that you should start at the top no matter how ignorant and inexperienced?

Comments

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AWFULLY HIGH BOTTOM:

Crude's Slide Greases A New Bull (Martin T. Sosnoff 08.15.08, Forbes)

Barring major geopolitical upsets, we've seen the lows for this market cycle.

I stand beside what I've said before: The next bull market needs to sniff out the bottom for home prices and mortgage delinquencies. I'm out a year. Your guess is as good as mine. Mortgage rates now stand too punitive. The pinball machine lights up when they go below 6%. At 5.75%, Bob De Niro, step aside, I'm your new raging bull.

These past several years the world was one gigantic hedge fund. The smart money shorted the dollar and owned oil, industrial commodities and whatever grows in the ground--even farmland and timber reserves. The best working hypothesis always is under 25 words, but all encompassing.

Tons of financial money-playing commodities actually shortened the bull cycle by forging spikes in oil, gold and corn prematurely. Now for the unraveling, which is bullish for stocks.

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WORDS TO THE MUSIC:

Howard Sounes's top 10 music biographies (Howard Sounes, 5/10/01, guardian.co.uk)

4. Last Train to Memphis: The Rise of Elvis Presley by Peter Guralnick

Truly definitive. Even the taciturn Bob Dylan was moved to praise: "[Elvis] steps from these pages, you can feel him breathe?" [...]

10. Why Me? The Autobiography of Sammy Davis Jr. by Sammy Davis Jr. with Jane and Burt Boyar

An entertainer of great talent, but little discernible taste, recalls fortunes earned and wasted during a life in show business. Most amusing.

The Boyars' book is a favorite of ours, but here are some other good ones:

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