May 20, 2008


Kind of Blue: Gay-marriage ruling can help McCain. (Mark Stricherz, 5/19/08, National Review)

The key states are likely to be New Jersey, New Mexico, and Iowa. The first two have no laws defining marriage; in Iowa, last August a judge in the Iowa City area tossed out the state’s ban on gay marriage, before staying his decision an hour later. All three states are likely to be contested this fall.

New Jersey’s 15 electoral votes would be the biggest prize. Although George W. Bush lost the state to John Kerry by 6 percentage points, McCain, as a more centrist candidate, is likely to fare better. He is ahead of Obama by one percentage point, according to Rasmussen. If California-wed gay couples flock to the state, his lead is likely to stay or expand on the strength of support from the state’s Catholics, blacks, and working-class whites, three groups who oppose gay marriage strongly.

New Mexico’s five electoral votes would also be in play. As of now, the state looks to be a Democratic pickup. Obama leads McCain by nine percentage points, according to Rasmussen. Yet this lead is sure to evaporate if the California ruling proceeds, as Hispanics and working-class whites defect.

...with which the GOP can make the brown Red.

Posted by Orrin Judd at May 20, 2008 7:19 AM
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