April 22, 2008

THE COMEBACK KID DIDN'T EVEN WIN, NEVERRMIND BY A LANDSLIDE:

What to look for in the Pennsylvania primary: The primary may be just another day of voting for Democrats. Or it could be the beginning of the end for one of the candidates (Peter Wallsten, 4/22/08, Los Angeles Times)

"The margin of the vote is equally as important" as who posts the highest vote total, said former Colorado Gov. Roy Romer, one of the nearly 800 party activists and leaders whose votes as superdelegates will put the winning nominee over the top at this summer's party convention.

About 300 of the superdelegates are still uncommitted, including Romer, and many of them will pore over the finer details of today's results to gauge how each candidate might fare in the fall and, as a result, which one deserves the nomination.

"I keep absorbing information," Romer said.

Here are some factors that, in addition to who wins the vote, will help decide whether the Pennsylvania primary is one more way station on the road to the final primaries in June, or whether the nomination fight might come to a quicker conclusion:

The spread: Clinton needs to win by at least 10 percentage points -- the margin she posted over Obama in Ohio's March 4 primary -- to show that she has not lost her touch in the industrial Rust Belt, several uncommitted superdelegates said.

If she is successful, she will be able to point superdelegates to the fact that she trounced Obama despite being severely outspent on television and radio advertisements in Pennsylvania by a more than 2-to-1 margin.

If Obama can keep the race to within 10 percentage points, or even win, he would claim that he has shown surprising strength in a state that is Clinton's demographic home turf, with many of the lower-income Democrats who have supported her in earlier primaries.


If she's headed towards a 10 point win and doesn't take the stage (and the tv cameras) before Senator Obama and do the Icky Shuffle all over him, she's learned even less from Bill than we fear. She gets to frame the victory, if she has sense enough to do so.

Posted by Orrin Judd at April 22, 2008 7:13 AM
Comments

That's not it. It isn't that Mrs BJ has some special strength in the large, important states. In reality she still has 50+% negatives nation-wide, and is generally thought of as a lying slime.

What we are seeing is that the Effendi's negatives outweigh even hers among the Reagan Democrats, independents, new Americans.

Obama's exremist cadres are going to be administered a lesson we learned in 1964.

Posted by: Lou Gots at April 22, 2008 9:40 AM
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