March 13, 2008

AT THIS POINT IN THE CYCLE...:

McCain, GOP May Have Cause for Hope: Latest Poll Helps Detail Reasons the Democrats Remain Deadlocked (JACKIE CALMES, March 13, 2008, Walkl Street Journal)

Illinois Sen. Obama edges Sen. McCain by 47% to 44%, while Sen. Clinton, of New York, beats the Republican by a near-identical 47% to 45%. The poll, which surveyed 1,012 registered voters March 7-10, has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

Chief among the strengths of the Republican nominee-in-waiting is his experience with national-security issues, as a naval aviator and longtime senator. "Americans can visualize John McCain behind the desk in the Oval Office," said Mr. Hart. "The difficulty is where his policies are, and is he going to take the country where it wants to head."

Of 10 attributes measured in the poll, Sen. McCain scored highest for "being knowledgeable and experienced enough to handle the presidency." Nearly two-thirds of voters agreed -- up 12 points from December, when both parties' nominating races were getting under way. His next-highest ratings, from 61%, were for strong leadership and for readiness to be commander in chief.

Voters gave Sen. McCain the lowest marks on whether he shared their positions on issues (31% said he does), for being inspirational (22%) and for being likely to produce change in Washington (20%). Yet Sen. McCain evokes positive responses among voters generally -- by 47% to 27% they say they have a favorable view of him, with the rest mostly neutral. Those with positive feelings include seven out of 10 conservative voters who otherwise say they are unhappy with Sen. McCain as the nominee. Fewer than half of Democrats have unfavorable views.

In the first Journal/NBC poll since Sen. McCain clinched the nomination, a 52% majority of Republicans say they would have preferred another nominee -- a gauge of how much bridge-building the reputed party maverick must do to unite his party. But both pollsters caution against reading too much into that finding. Other findings show even dissatisfied Republicans would vote overwhelmingly for Sen. McCain against either Democrat.


...in a poll of registered voters, they need to be way ahead of the Republican nominee to have a chance in the Fall.

Posted by Orrin Judd at March 13, 2008 6:38 AM
Comments

So in a poll in which Democrats outnumber Republicans 47%-35%, neither Democrat candidate can beat McCain by more than 3% (and neither can beat that 47% number!)? This thing's gonna be a massacre...

Posted by: b at March 13, 2008 11:38 AM
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