WHICH WAY TO BATAAN?:

Forget the Debate: Democrats' Debate Fizzles; Dean Goes for an Image Make-Over (Kareem Fahim,
January 23rd, 2oo4, Village Voice)

There was plenty of expectation but little drama during last night's Democratic presidential debate, the first since the frenzied reshuffling of the Democratic field in Iowa last week, and the last before the all-important New Hampshire primary.

Since the last debate several weeks ago, there have been putative adjustments in strategy, bandied about by the pundits. John Kerry has transformed himself into a folksy populist, and Joe Lieberman has scrapped his reputation as a scrapper. John Edwards added character to his charm (or was it just success?), and his message suddenly commanded attention. Al Sharpton and Dennis Kucinich are hanging on to keep the others honest. And Howard Dean, of course, has been stuck morosely in the hole he dug for himself when he let out that monstrous rebel yell.

After the debate, the Fox analysts concluded that the whole thing was a tepid affair, despite attempts by Peter Jennings to draw candidates into battle. "I'd say, 'Nice try'," Lieberman joked at one point, in deference to the new arbiter of successful campaigning, John Edwards. "I'm going to talk about myself." No news had been made, the analysts hurriedly agreed, and I'm guessing they then joined millions of other Americans and flipped to ABC for the real dish of the day: Howard Dean's attempt at rehabilitation on Primetime.

The Democrats seem to be making a rather significant mistake by adopting their nice guy poses far too early in the campaign season. The chief distinguishing feature of their 2003-4 campaign season has been the inability of the frontrunners and temporarily hot candidates to withstand even mild scrutiny or a challenge from rival campaigns. They started out with John Kerry the presumptive favorite, but he got drubbed by Howard Dean from the day the Iraq War ended until Dr. Dean in turn blew himself up. Along the way, Dick Gephardt's assumed advantage in Iowa disappeared, as did he, and General Clark went from the flavor of the month of December to New Coke in January. What is driving this turbulence seems pretty obvious in opinion polling: none of the candidates is terribly well known--with the exception of Joe Lieberman whose name recognition made him a frontrunner briefly too; though on Tuesday he may well finish behind Lyndon LaRouche--and what folks know of them they don't particularly like. This makes it extremely dangerous to call off the dogs now and send a relatively untested nominee up against George W. Bush.

If John Kerry has already buckled once, in the face of Howard Dean and Joe Trippi, how's he going to fare this coming summer when Karl Rove spends $200 million dollars telling us all about the fella who was Michael Dukakis's lieutenant governor and Ted Kennedy's junior partner in the Senate?

Posted by Orrin Judd at January 24, 2004 12:33 PM