January 24, 2004
THE AURA OF VICTORY:
Newsweek Poll: And They're Off (Brian Braiker, Jan. 24, 2004, Newsweek)
Riding high on his victory in the Iowa caucus—and benefiting from former Vermont governor Howard Dean’s embarrassing “I have a scream” speech—Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry has surged to the head of the pack of democratic presidential hopefuls, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll, commanding 30 percent of support from registered Democrats, up from 11 percent two weeks ago. And for the first time in the poll's history a Democrat is enjoying a marginal advantage over President George W. Bush. In a hypothetical face-off, Kerry commanded a three-point lead over the president. Dean’s support among registered and likely Democrats, meanwhile, has been cut in half, to 12 percent. That puts him in three-way tie for second place in the Jan. 27 New Hampshire primary with retired Gen. Wesley Clark (12 percent) and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards (13 percent).
That puts Senator Kerry's election number vs. President Bush higher than his name recognition was on Monday morning. This is the danger for Democrats in believing that winning Democratic primaries equals electability. The Senator is a blank slate right now, upon which people can impose any qualities and policies they like. Then they find out what he's done and wants to do and he tanks. Similar polls in January/February had Ronald Reagan in the mid-40s and in a dead heat with Walter Mondale--then the election started... Posted by Orrin Judd at January 24, 2004 7:10 PM
Another flawed poll from Newsweek. 1,000 adults sample is meaningless. Some of these organizations (such as last week's NYT poll) oversample Democrats to get the result they want to push.
Posted by: sam at January 24, 2004 7:46 PMI can't wait to see John F*** Kerry's record dissected (he's a Viet Nam vet by the way).
Posted by: Raoul Ortega at January 24, 2004 8:55 PMOn NPR last week:
Host: "Opinion polls now show that a generic democratic candidate leads President Bush. Isn't that pretty serious at this point in the election cycle?"
Republican campaign strategist: "The problem for the Democrats is that they can't run a generic candidate."
Posted by: mike earl at January 24, 2004 11:33 PMDo they consider, in the margin of error, the possible effect of 24/7 Bush bashing in the liberally dominated media, NPR and the primary campaign for the last month? NOOO.
Posted by: Genecis at January 25, 2004 1:02 PM