October 20, 2003
EVEN PAT'S ON BOARD:
Is it Bush vs. Dean? (Pat Buchanan, October 20, 2003, Townhall.com)
With an uptick in his approval rating to 56 percent -- higher than Reagan at this point in his presidency -- George W. Bush seems to have weathered his summer squall and to be well-positioned to do what his father failed to do: Win a second term. [...]If Wall Street remains the lead indicator it has usually been -- a predictor of what is to come in the economy six to 12 months out -- Bush could be presiding over good times in 2004.
Moreover, with the dollar sinking, aiding U.S. exports, with most Bush tax cuts taking effect before November '04, with Alan Greenspan gunning the money supply and with a $550 billion deficit pumping out cash, the economy has all the steroids it needs for an Olympic performance in 2004.
Then there is Iraq, about which a consensus seems to be emerging. Those who opposed the war do not want to cut and run and leave Iraq to chaos and civil war. Those who supported the war do not want to stay on forever and fight an Iraqi intifada.
The consensus appears to be this: America will not send fresh new divisions to fight a five- or 10-year war. Iraq will be helped onto its feet and power transferred as soon as possible, so Iraqis themselves can take responsibility for their own independence. And then, the Americans go home.
The absence of a Buchanan-like challenger helps too. Posted by Orrin Judd at October 20, 2003 8:20 AM
It's media darling McCain that you have to worry about, not Buchanan. Buchanan showed in the 2000 election that he's not a major player anymore.
Posted by: AWW at October 20, 2003 8:34 AMMcCain would run as a Democrat this time.
Posted by: oj at October 20, 2003 8:41 AMJust read an unintentionally hilarious piece on NRO by John Derbyshire. The Derb is fantasizing that a third-party candidate will make Bush a one-termer.
Derb also thought we wouldn't go to war in Iraq and that McClintock had a chance in California.
Book it. Bush wins easy.
Posted by: Casey Abell at October 20, 2003 9:19 AMCasey:
That is inane--GWB has 90%+ approval from Republicans. A third party candidate would almost certainly take Democrat votes.
Posted by: oj at October 20, 2003 9:27 AMOrrin:
Of course Derbyshire's column is inane. But for some reason the Derb doesn't like Bush. Maybe Dubya's not reactionary enough for him.
Anyway, the Derb is so far out of touch with real-life politics that his column is nothing but good news for Bush. Derbyshire's political predictions are valuable contrary indicators - almost as good as Dick Morris' forecasts.
Posted by: Casey Abell at October 20, 2003 9:51 AMLook for the Democratic nominee to get an strong uptick next August after their convention as well, just as Mondale did in 1984 and Dukakis in 1988, so no matter what happens over the next 11 months, we'll have to go through this whole late-summer poll numbers thing again.
Posted by: John at October 20, 2003 10:09 AMI wonder what Ralph Nader and the Greens will do? My bet is nothing. Ralph will support Dean and the greens are probably already there.
Posted by: genecis at October 20, 2003 10:18 AMHobbs Online links that SF tech job posting are up.
Posted by: Sandy P. at October 20, 2003 11:27 AM"Then there is Iraq, about which a consensus seems to be emerging. Those who opposed the war do not want to cut and run and leave Iraq to chaos and civil war. Those who supported the war do not want to stay on forever and fight an Iraqi intifada.
So, let's say our troops are returning in methodical waves 3 or 4 of which should have hit our shores by this time next year. Wouldn't you love to be the Democrat stuck defending the case that we "shouldn't have been there in the first place" but now we're "leaving too soon"?
Even with the media's help, it simply won't wash with average voters.
Posted by: John Resnick at October 20, 2003 12:44 PM