DOWN TO TWO (OR ONE):

Early Primary Predictions Are Anyone's Guess (Charlie Cook, Oct. 21, 2003, NationalJournal.com)

Suffice it to say that Dean and Gephardt are locked into a close fight for first place in Iowa, with Kerry in third -- though how close he is to the front-runners is a matter of some dispute. No one else is a significant factor in the state.

In New Hampshire, both polls agreed that Dean was the overwhelming favorite, with Kerry in second place and Clark in third. It should be kept in mind, however, that New Hampshire results are sometimes by what happens in Iowa. In the Bread for the World survey, Dean had 33 percent, and Kerry came in second with 18 percent. It is worth noting the obvious: Both men are from neighboring states. Clark came in third with 9 percent, while Lieberman was fourth with 6 percent. In the Democracy Corps survey, Dean had a whopping 38 percent of the vote, with Kerry in second with 21 percent, Clark third with 11 percent and Gephardt fourth with 8 percent.

It was the Democracy Corps poll in South Carolina that was the most interesting, perhaps because we have seen less polling in the Palmetto State than in Iowa and New Hampshire. In South Carolina, Sen. John Edwards -- who hails from neighboring North Carolina -- held the first place slot with 14 percent, but Gephardt was just a point behind at 13 percent, with Clark another point behind him at 12 percent. Lieberman was in fourth place at 11 percent, Dean was tied for fifth place with the Rev. Al Sharpton at 10 percent, and the rest of the field was in single digits.

The only clear conclusion from these data is that Dean is in a formidable position in New Hampshire, but locked into either a two- or three-way fight in Iowa. In South Carolina, the race looks wide open, with Edwards possibly ahead but four other candidates within four points of first place. It is the very definition of a wide-open contest.

The idea that a candidate who doesn't finish on the radar screen in IA or NH is then going to win SC or anywhere else just seems ridiculous. If Gephardt can pull out IA, he's the opposition to Dean. If not, Dean is home free. Unless, of course, another candidate gets in the race...

Posted by Orrin Judd at October 21, 2003 10:16 PM