FRIDAY SHOULD BE INTERESTING:

Major test for Iran's reformists: Hard-liners' moves to disqualify opponents could spark officials' resignations. (Scott Peterson, 1/14/04, The Christian Science Monitor)

President Khatami has vowed to "protest" through "legal channels," methods he does not see as "compatible with the principles of religious democracy."

But a letter from him apparently read out during the parliament sit-in, and reported in the Etemad reform newspaper Tuesday, suggested that he may step down if the crisis is not resolved. Regional governors have already said they will step down if a solution is not found.

"I will wait for one week so that things go back to normal," the newspaper reported Khatami's letter as stating. "Otherwise, if elections cannot be held, I will step down from my position."

Khatami's pro-reform League of Combatant Clerics saw dangers beyond Iran's border, saying on Monday: "(The conservatives) are paving the way for enemies who want to show the Islamic Republic is a despotic state."

Ayatollah Khamenei - who has final say over all issues - told state radio he would not act unless the issue "goes beyond legal methods."

"We are heading for trouble, because this is no way to deal with people," says Shahriar Rouhani, an analyst at Tehran's Azad University. "It's a dangerous game [for conservatives] to play, because of the lack of trust of the people."

The sweeping disqualifications coincide with deepening popular disillusion with the reform camp, which handily won control of the parliament, or Majlis, in 2000 for the first time since Iran's 1979 Islamic revolution.

But unelected conservative bodies have blocked reform efforts at every turn. The current crisis could help foster renewed sense of purpose.

"If [conservatives] don't show some flexibility, it will automatically mobilize the opposition, and many are quite militant anyway," says Mr. Rouhani, a physicist who was active in the early years of the revolution. "They are going to be bunched together, and will not - to say the least - be very peaceful."

Here's where the traditions of Shi'ism may make things interesting--if reformers can rally significant marches after prayers on Friday, the whole thing will start to snowball.

MORE:
Lift ban on reformers or I quit, says Iran's president (Anton La Guardia, 14/01/2004, Daily Telegraph)

Mohammad Khatami, the Iranian president, last night threatened to resign in the trial of strength between Islamic hardliners and reformers.

He warned that he would take all the country's prominent reformers with him unless hardliners rescinded a ban preventing thousands of progressives from standing in next month's parliamentary elections.

He appeared to throw his weight behind the reformers after prevaricating for two days. "We will leave together or we will stay together. We have to remain firm. If one day we are asked to leave, then we will all leave - together," he said.

His comments came during a meeting with 27 provincial governors, who have threatened to resign en masse if the ban remains in force. Several government ministers were also said to have prepared resignation letters.

President Khatami, elected in 1997 on a pro-reform ticket, has disappointed many supporters by his inability to bring real political change. Many will remain sceptical about his readiness for confrontation with hardline mullahs who control key parts of the regime, such as the judiciary and the security forces.

Nevertheless, his threat will raise the stakes in what now appears the decisive struggle.

Posted by Orrin Judd at January 13, 2004 08:40 PM